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BANKS AND RATES
Easy money does not mean easy banking profits. Even so，last week‘s decision
by the Federal Reserve to increase the ①discount rate②at which it lends to banks
was hailed as the beginning of the end for bank profitability. In fact，the move
is something of a technicality – borrowing under the main discount facility is
now about $14bn，down from a crisis-time peak of more than $110bn. Use of the
term auction facility，which the Fed has been winding down for some time and will
end in March，has also declined.
True，the Fed’s zero interest rate policy
has kept the ③yield curve steep.With US banks‘a(chǎn)verage net interest margin at a
four-year high，some banks laden with bad assets last year benefited as cheaper
funding helped to balance continuing high rates of provisions and credit costs.
But this cannot last. Yields in banks’ loan books are already
shrinking，notes Institutional Risk Analytics.That worsens the longer rates
remain low as assets reprice，and ④redemptions and charge-offs shrink outstanding
loans.
Rising rates，by contrast， should make it easier for banks to deploy
money profitably. Sharp rises increase the chances that some banks fall flat
over their interest rate risk. But，argues Credit Suisse，banks have been
converting loan books to variable pricing，which means greater earnings uplift
from rising rates.
With $1，100bn of excess bank reserves at the Fed，this
presents another problem：that banks lend out those reserves，⑤delivering a boost
to the economy at just the wrong time. This explains the renewed emphasis on
payment of interest on reserves，a tool to prevent that happening.
That，however，is a headache for the central bank. Banks should welcome ⑥tighter
money，even if those borrowing from them do not.
譯文梗概:
如何看美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提高貼現(xiàn)率
容易獲得資金并不意味著銀行業(yè)能輕松獲取利潤(rùn)。即便如此，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)決定提高貸款給銀行的貼現(xiàn)率，還是被當(dāng)作終結(jié)銀行盈利能力的開(kāi)端。實(shí)際上，此舉帶有某種技術(shù)性質(zhì)——目前通過(guò)主要貼現(xiàn)工具借出的款項(xiàng)約為140億美元，遠(yuǎn)低于危機(jī)時(shí)期逾1100億美元的峰值。對(duì)定期拍賣安排這一特殊工具的使用次數(shù)也在減少。一段時(shí)間以來(lái)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直在削減此類安排，并將在3月份最終取消。
的確，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的零利率政策使收益率曲線保持陡峭。鑒于美國(guó)各銀行的平均凈利差處于4年高位，一些擁有大量不良資產(chǎn)的銀行去年受益匪淺，因?yàn)楦畠r(jià)的資金助其平衡了壞賬撥備與信貸成本之間持續(xù)高企的比率。
但這種情況不可能持續(xù)�！稒C(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析》指出，銀行貸款賬戶的收益率已在不斷下降。這使長(zhǎng)期利率保持低位的形勢(shì)變得更為嚴(yán)峻，因?yàn)橘Y產(chǎn)重新定價(jià)、贖回和沖銷縮減了貸款余額的規(guī)模。
相比之下，利率上升應(yīng)該會(huì)讓銀行更容易以有利可圖的方式配置資金。利率大幅上升加大了某些銀行因利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而倒閉的可能性。但瑞信(Credit
Suisse)辯稱，銀行一直在將貸款的賬面價(jià)值轉(zhuǎn)為彈性定價(jià)，意味著利率上升會(huì)帶來(lái)更多利潤(rùn)。
存放在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的1.1萬(wàn)億美元銀行超額準(zhǔn)備金產(chǎn)生了另一個(gè)問(wèn)題：如果銀行借出這些準(zhǔn)備金，就正好在錯(cuò)誤的時(shí)間提振了經(jīng)濟(jì)。這解釋了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為何會(huì)重新強(qiáng)調(diào)準(zhǔn)備金的利息支付(阻止這一切發(fā)生的工具)。然而，這對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)難題。銀行應(yīng)該歡迎收緊貨幣政策，即便那些向它們借款的人并不樂(lè)意。
(文章來(lái)源：FT中文網(wǎng))
點(diǎn)評(píng):
�、賒iscount
rate，金融術(shù)語(yǔ)，意為貼現(xiàn)率。1.指商業(yè)銀行以政府債務(wù)如國(guó)庫(kù)券為抵押，向中央銀行借入資金的利率。2.泛指將未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流折算為現(xiàn)值的利率。在文中取第一個(gè)意思。
②at
which it lends to banks，定語(yǔ)從句，結(jié)構(gòu)是“先行詞(discount
rate)+介詞(at)+關(guān)系代詞(which)”
③yield
curve，收益率曲線，債券術(shù)語(yǔ)，是顯示一組貨幣和信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)均相同，但期限不同的債券或其他金融工具收益率的圖表。縱軸代表收益率。
�、躵edemption，贖回，指?jìng)l(fā)行人在債券到期時(shí)贖回債券。
⑤delivering
…在此為現(xiàn)在分詞短語(yǔ)作結(jié)果狀語(yǔ)，是“借出這些準(zhǔn)備金”所帶來(lái)的結(jié)果。
�、辴ighter money在此相當(dāng)于tight currency policy
(made by the Fed.)“緊縮的貨幣政策”。 |